Captain's Log

Sailors talking about (and complaining about) the weather is as old as sailing itself. Although we are not at the mercy of the shifting winds and weather patterns as we used to be, thanks to our big diesel engines, whenever we set off across a larger body of water we can be sure that something unforseen will be thrown at us and that we may have to alter course to accommodate Mother Nature. It is just the way it is.

This year's weather patterns promise to be as fickle as ever since the Pacific Ocean is gearing up for a robust El Niño season. The sailing season in the South Pacific runs from March through October, and the weather boffins studying El Niño are predicting that the contrary forces that El Niño spawns throughout the South Pacific will peak during the March through June period.

What does that mean for all of the boats heading west from Panama or southwest from Mexico? It means that these voyagers will find a mixed bag of weather once they get south of the equator instead of the steady and pleasant southeast trade winds. And they will find contrary currents where they should be sailing with a fair flow. Cruisers throughout the South Pacific this season will find strange weather patterns across the breadth of the ocean. In the eastern regions, the west coast of South America will be wetter than usual, while the western regions of the Pacific, in Australia and Indonesia, will be drier than usual and may suffer droughts.

In between, the Pacific will serve up more local squalls than usual, more westerly winds and abnormal low-pressure cells that tend to drift eastward, disrupting whatever trade winds might be blowing. Those sailing west will have to deal with headwinds and contrary currents where they might expect to have long days and weeks of downwind sliding. But that is just part of the voyaging life. Sometimes the wind blows in our favor and sometimes it doesn't. How you react is what makes the difference.

Like so much else in life, cruising is all about making the best of what you are dealt and looking for the right opportunities wherever you are. This simple idea was driven home during our El Niño passage across the Pacific. A cruising friend was also heading west and had spent some time trying to understand the effects of El Niño worldwide. As it turned out, he discovered that the predicted drought in Australia was threatening the giant green pea industry in northeastern Australia, which in turn would affect the price of peas on the world market. Being a commodities trader, he bought pea futures and laid back to watch his wager double and then triple as the price of peas went through the roof.

El Niño's seem to appear every four or five years. It certainly changes the way we all cruise through the South Pacific. But if you keep your wits about you, study the patterns, look for opportunities and be patient, El Niño is nothing more than another wrinkle in the uncertainty of the cruising life. And if you are smart, it can offer a way to make money, too.

Fair winds,