Hurricane season for the northern Hemisphere starts on June 1. NOAA has just come out with their latest forecast for hurricane activity this year and it looks like we are in for a busy summer and fall. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center lays it out this way: we have a 65% probability that hurricane season will be more active than normal; they are expecting 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. Storms with winds above 39 mph are given names while storms with winds over 74 knots are designated hurricanes. A major category 4 or 5 hurricane will have winds over 110 mph. The reason for this predicted increased activity involves several climate factors, such as a persistent La Niña in the Pacific, warmer than average sea temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, weaker Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. Importantly, the west African monsoon is the seed bed where Atlantic hurricanes germinate and form. Add into this mix the appearance of a stronger than normal Gulf Stream Loop in the Gulf of Mexico which creates a perfect environment for hurricanes to be supercharged by hot water and explode into super storms like Katrina. So, all of us in hurricane prone areas –Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Central America, the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast– need to be more vigilant than ever this year and have plans for our boats if we find ourselves in a hurricane’s path.
Read more about NOAA’s 2022 hurricane forecast here.
